PREDICTION MARKETS / INDEPENDENT RESEARCH
Market discovery, probability models, order books and trader intelligence. Aestus brings the evidence into one research workspace.
Free beta access. No paid subscription required during the beta.
A MORE COMPLETE RESEARCH PROCESS
Find the event. Inspect the market. Compare the research. Understand the activity behind it.
01 / MARKET EXPLORER
Explore prediction markets across sports, politics, crypto, finance and more. Move from a broad category to an individual event, with the leading outcomes and market activity in view.
02 / MARKET WORKBENCH
Bring outcomes, order-book depth and price history into the same view. Select the contract and side you want to inspect, then examine the available public market data.
03 / INDEPENDENT PROBABILITY RESEARCH
Compare Aestus probability estimates and fair odds with market prices for supported events. Follow the model context, coverage and source timing—not just the size of a gap.
A difference is a research question, not a guaranteed opportunity. Coverage, fees, liquidity and uncertainty still matter.
Explore the probability modelsMODEL FAMILIES / SUPPORTED EVENTS ONLY
V1.0 research models. Research-only outputs are not approved for execution or Simulator inclusion.
A model is not available for every market or contract. Coverage and eligibility are shown inside the platform.
FOLLOW THE ACTIVITY. KEEP THE CONTEXT.
Go beyond a single event. Explore public trader behaviour, screen market activity and follow a transparent paper ledger.
Find a public username or wallet. Rank traders by volume, profit or ROI, then inspect their activity and open positions.
Past results are descriptive, not evidence of future returns.
Unlock trader research ↗Switch between recent trades, larger transactions, open positions and model–market comparisons without starting a new search each time.
A positive model–market gap does not include fees or slippage.
Explore Bet Scope ↗Observe the shared paper bankroll as scheduled scans record qualifying opportunities, fees, positions and outcomes.
A shared simulation, not a personal account or live trading service.
See the Simulator ↗Scans run every four hours. The ledger includes fees and model details, flags stale valuations, and separates capital additions from trading P/L. Simulated fills are not guaranteed real-world execution.
THE DETAILS THAT KEEP RESEARCH HONEST
Market research is more useful when you can see its boundaries. Aestus keeps the supporting information close to the question.
Inspect event structure, settlement context and incomplete-outcome warnings. Unsupported structures can disable probability normalization and model-edge signals.
Read related news and follow video-search links from the event workspace, with publication sources and dates attached.
Review descriptive holder statistics with sample size and coverage. Holder ROI is kept separate from model probabilities and sizing.
Distinguish available live quotes from cached reference prices. Check quote timing, model versions and coverage before interpreting a comparison.
A CONNECTED RESEARCH WORKFLOW
Search a question or explore a category in Market Explorer.
Inspect prices, order books, history and available probability research.
Add trader activity, holder context and model limitations to your research.
START WITH FREE BETA ACCESS
Create an Aestus account to access supported probability models, trader research, Bet Scope and the Simulator.
The platform is in public beta. Features, coverage and data availability can change. Future pricing is not specified here.
$0 during the beta
No paid subscription required during this beta.
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Aestus is a prediction-market research platform. It brings market discovery, price and order-book analysis, supported probability models, public trader research, Bet Scope and a shared paper Simulator into one workspace.
You can browse the public market catalog and inspect available public market data. A free beta account is required for supported probability models, trader research, Bet Scope and the Simulator.
The current signup page offers free beta access with no paid subscription required during the beta. This is not a promise of free access forever; future pricing and terms should be checked on Aestus.
The research workspace is not a trade-execution service. Links can take you to an event on Polymarket. The Aestus Simulator uses a shared paper bankroll; its entries do not place real trades or use your money.
No. Quote availability and freshness depend on the source. Some views use cached or last-known prices. Models have event-specific coverage and their own data timestamps. The Simulator updates on a four-hour schedule, rather than continuously.
No. It is a difference between a model estimate and a market quote—not a guarantee of value, accuracy or returns. Fees, slippage, available depth, stale data and model uncertainty can change the interpretation. Research-only models have additional restrictions.
No. It is a shared paper ledger that lets registered users observe the simulation process, positions, fees and settlements. It is not a personal portfolio, brokerage account or promise that real trades could achieve the same results.
YOUR NEXT QUESTION STARTS HERE
One workspace for the prices, probabilities and people behind prediction markets.
Start exploring Aestus — free beta